Updated10 minutes ago

Will Trump win?

Live odds, polls, and news –– all in one place

Trump45%
Trump
0.0%
Harris56%
Harris
1.0%
Forecast powered byMetaculus
Metaculus is a platform for scientific forecasters. How is this different from a betting market?

Betting Odds

Studies show that political betting markets beat polls as leading predictors of elections. Below is an updating average of the odds from the two largest American markets: Polymarket and PredictIt.

Donald TrumpDonald Trump
46.4%
0.1%
Kamala HarrisKamala Harris
54.6%
0.1%

Polls

Below is a 7-day moving average of the latest general election polls, weighted based on each poll's recency and sample size. Poll results are sourced from FiveThirtyEight.

  1. Donald Trump

  2. Kamala Harris

Donald TrumpDonald Trump
45.6%
0.6%
Kamala HarrisKamala Harris
48.7%
0.3%

Latest News

Below are the latest high-ranking news stories related to the election. These can help explain changes in trends. Sourced from NewsData.

Jury deliberations begin in civil trial over 'Trump Train' encounter with Biden-Harris bus in Texas
ABC News
12 hours ago
Democrats seize on new Mark Robinson scandal to boost down-ballot prospects in N.C.
NBC News
13 hours ago
Former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan urges fellow conservatives to vote for Harris
NPR
14 hours ago
Show more
Senate GOP campaign arm nearly matches Dems for August fundraising
Axios
14 hours ago
Is Georgia ready to vote for a female president?
NPR
14 hours ago
Black pastors rebuke Mark Robinson’s reported remarks about Martin Luther King Jr.
NBC News
14 hours ago
Two months. Two apparent assassination attempts. This insane cycle must stop.
Washington Post
15 hours ago

Comments

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